Typically, April 1 represents the peak of snowpack in British Columbia, giving forecasters an idea of what the summer and fall might bring.
Jonathan Boyd, a hydrologist with the BC River Forecast Centre, said there is a strong regional divide this year, with the northern and eastern sections of the province having snowpack well above normal, then the southern interior and south coast of Vancouver Island well below normal.
“The South Coast comes in at 57 per cent of normal, Vancouver Island at 44 per cent of normal, the lower Fraser at 75 per cent of normal, extending a little further inland with the border, the area around Grand Forks at 65 per cent of normal, the Nicola and lower Thompson at 51 per cent of normal and the Okanagan at 58 per cent of normal,” Boyd said.
“And of particular note, the Okanagan recorded several very long-term stations with record readings for April 1. Since we have a historical record of snow basin indices, which starts around 1980, this was the lowest snow basin index for the Okanagan at 58 percent of normal and the previous one was 1981 at 67 percent. So, in particular, the Okanagan is a region that puts highlights how incredibly low it is this year compared to previous years.”
A low snowpack could lead to drought and water restrictions in parts of the province this year, but that's not a guarantee, Boyd said.
“We kind of saw the other side of the coin in 2023, when the snowpack was almost normal on April 1 and we ended up having a very dry and warm spring, especially in May, with rapid melting,” he said.
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“And that has led to the worst drought conditions in the province and a terrible wildfire season. Snowpack alone doesn't necessarily guarantee drought one way or the other. The overall weather conditions of spring and summer really dictate whether drought occurs or not, but from a broader perspective of water supply and the potential risk of drought or wildfire, it certainly amplifies when the snowpack is low like this.”
Boyd said B.C.'s major population areas, including Metro Vancouver, the Fraser Valley and Vancouver Island, are well below normal in terms of snowpack levels.
“This is the lowest level recorded on the South Coast and Vancouver Island in the last 10 years,” he said.
“2024 was kind of on par with this year's measurements and 2015 was much lower for the South Coast and Vancouver Island. It was about 10 to 15 per cent of normal. So we're still a lot better than the worst we've ever seen, say, compared to the Okanagan, where it's the worst we've seen in about 45 years.”
Officials will monitor the spring and summer melt and determine whether wetter weather could set in.
“You remember March was actually a very wet month,” Boyd said. “We had basically a six-day atmospheric river that impacted Vancouver Island and the south coast, so we had some moisture. That's just for the winter, and then there in March the temperatures were a little bit warmer than normal, so we didn't necessarily get that moisture with the snow accumulation.”
Meanwhile, areas with higher snowpack could experience flooding or high rivers, Boyd added.
“Particularly in areas of the province that have the highest source of mountain water from the snowpack, there will be a high potential risk of flooding as we progress through the season,” he said.
“And in particular, it will also be the later flood, which typically could occur around the end of May, but would probably extend even into June, or even early July.”
Boyd said they expect a quiet start to the season when it comes to flood risks, but it could intensify later in the season.
“This is one of the wildest April 1sts I've seen, where there are really two stories, which is that the northern and eastern parts of the province are well above normal and there is a potential risk of flooding.
“In the southern and coastal areas it is the lack of water that can be of concern and the most important thing, of course, is to follow the guidelines of local governments and municipalities.”
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