After weeks of growing tensions, the United States – alongside Israel – opted for a massive attack on Iran, including decapitation strikes on Iranian leaders, as well as strikes against nuclear targets, ballistic missiles and other military targets, signaling an ambitious US goal of regime change in Iran. Iran immediately retaliated, launching attacks on the United States and other targets in several countries in the region, paving the way for a broader regional conflict with global repercussions.
Q1: What are the regional repercussions of the strikes against Iran?
A1: The regional repercussions of the American and Israeli strikes against Iran are significant. Shortly after the joint strikes, Iran launched a series of retaliatory missile and drone strikes across the region. He initially fired 40 ballistic bullets missiles towards Israel which Israel was largely able to repel. However, nine Israelis were killed and dozens injured in a March 1 Iranian ballistic missile strike just outside Jerusalem, a grim reminder that Israel's missile defense is not capable of preventing all strikes. Iran too chose to attack American military and civilian targets in the Gulf in several countries, including Bahrain, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Qatar. Jordan and Iraq also reported intercepting Iranian missiles, while Oman's missiles port of Duqm was hit by an Iranian drone strike on March 1, making it the eighth Arab country hit by Iran.
Iranian strikes have already caused significant disruption in the region. An Iranian attack damaged a terminal at Dubai International Airport, the world's busiest air hub, while airports in Abu Dhabi, BahrainAnd Kuwait also suffered damage from Iranian strikes. Several countries have closed their airspace and airlines have suspended travel, canceling thousands of flights and stranding tens of thousands of passengers. The simultaneous closure of the Gulf's three main air hubs – Dubai, Abu Dhabi and Doha – is unprecedented and has significant implications for trade and transport.
Iran has actually closed the strategic Strait of Hormuz, which facilitates the passage of a fifth of global oil trade. Shipping companies have moved away from the area, leading to oil shipments. disturbances this could cause significant price increases when oil markets reopen after the weekend.
Tehran's decision to immediately retaliate against civilian targets across the region – from Israel to the Gulf – highlights Iran's strategy to make the United States and the region pay a heavy price in response to the strikes. Beyond Dubai airport, the Iranian strikes hit a apartment building in Bahrain and a hotel/shopping area in Dubai, among others. Tehran could calculate that if it imposes a high enough cost on the region, Gulf countries will push for exits and a de-escalation of the conflict. Perhaps more worryingly, elements of the Iranian regime may decide that if the regime is on the verge of collapse, it will take the region with it. The decision to more permanently block the Strait of Hormuz – Iran's economic lifeline – would be suicidal for Iran, but would also impose enormous costs on the region's energy producers.
At the same time, Gulf countries are weighing their options. Many Gulf countries have strongly condemned the Iranian strikes; Saudi Arabia called them “blatant Iranian aggression”, while the United Arab Emirates called the strikes a “blatant violation of national sovereignty”. Some may now be more willing to openly allow their airspace to be used for U.S. strikes against Iran, while those countries are less likely to join the fray themselves.
Q2: Will Iran's regional proxies mobilize?
A2: This appears to be a moment of truth for Iran's proxies and for what remains of the “axis of resistance.” Iranian proxy groups have yet to mobilize despite threats to launch attacks if confrontation with Iran resumes. Before the U.S. and Israeli strikes, groups such as the Yemeni Houthi militia, Lebanese Hezbollah and Iran-backed proxies in Iraq pledged to retaliate in support of Iran if the Islamic Republic was attacked. Although these groups did not immediately respond when the strikes began, Iran's confirmation of the death of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamanei could spur some to act. In particular, the Houthis could resume attacks on navigation on the Red Sea, where they retain the ability to launch attacks against commercial and military vessels. For its part, Hezbollah, considerably weakened by a Israeli offensive in 2024 – had more recently reported less willingness to retaliate on behalf of Iran. Even Khamanei's murder does not appear to have changed this calculation. Despite the long-standing ties between Hezbollah supporters and ayatollahs in Iran, many Hezbollah leaders, including the late Hassan Nasrallah, identify Ayatollah Khamanei as their marja (source of emulation) and religious leader – Hezbollah reaction remains remarkably discreet.
Q3: What are the long-term implications?
A3: The conflict with Iran constitutes a defining moment for the Middle East, with generational implications for the region's trajectory, highlighting the prospect of long-term instability. For now, the region enters a period of unprecedented uncertainty, including instability in Iran, the regional fallout of the regime's growing desperation, and the response to these radically changing circumstances in the Gulf and beyond. The US-Israeli strikes mark a new tectonic shift in a region already in the grip of a change of order.
The assassination of Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamanei, underscores that Iran is entering a period of significant change. Even if an undisputed successor is named, the country's various competing power centers will likely enter a period of intense rivalry and rivalry. And regime collapse remains a possibility, potentially triggering internal chaos and civil war in Iran, with repercussions that could include large-scale refugee flows to Turkey and the Gulf.
For its part, the Gulf can be expected to deepen Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) coordination on defense and security, seeking to protect the region from continued fallout from Iran. In the longer term, GCC countries could move towards a more formal integrated air defense system. At this point, it is difficult to imagine that the Gulf countries will return to the path of détente with Iran. With its reckless strikes, Tehran appears to have galvanized the Gulf, perhaps even offering a (perhaps temporary) reprieve from tensions. growing tensions between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.
More broadly, the strikes against Iran and their complex repercussions constitute a new development in the situation in the Middle East.pivotal moment.” At first gradually, then more rapidly, the region is in the midst of a transformation from an old order that has defined the region in recent decades to an emerging new Middle East. These changes began before the October 7 Hamas terrorist attack – itself a disruptive effort by Hamas to derail potential normalization between Saudi Arabia and Israel. The ensuing war in Gaza then accelerated and deepened the dissolution of the dominant regional order with a succession of events: the decimation of Hezbollah in Lebanon, the collapse of the Assad regime in Syria, and now the dramatic weakening and potential collapse of the Islamic Republic of Iran. With their strengthened capacity to act, regional actors – mainly Israel and the Gulf – will play a key role in shaping the contours of the emerging order in the Middle East. Yet the final shape of the new Middle East is far from certain; Many more dramatic changes await us in the months and even years to come.
Mona Yacoubian is Director and Senior Advisor of the Middle East Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).
