The roller coaster has a new loop
The S&P 500 closed up 0.83% yesterday following Trump's de-escalation remarks, although the index is still down 0.73% year to date. Futures contracts are up 0.19% this morning. Europe and the UK jumped at the open; Asia did the same, with South Korea KOSPI leading the pack, up 5.35%.
FEATURED STORIES
IRAN
And just like that, the war was “very complete, pretty much“
Everything you thought yesterday about the war with Iran is wrong today. following President Trump's remarks that he is ready to end the conflict. Trump said the war was “very complete, almost” and then “we have already won in many ways, but we have not won enough.” Asked if the war would end this week, Trump said “no” and “very soon.” He also said: “We could call it a huge success now and get out of here. . . or we could go further, and we will go further.” Crystal clear.
- Keep this thought: Today, Israel's Netanyahu said Israel is “not yet finished” with its fight against Iran.
Output output: Trump's comments come after his advisers reminded him that high oil prices would end Republicans' midterm chances, THE Wall Street Journal reports. Trump lacked wiggle room on the price of oil, given that the US Strategic Oil Reserve was only 58% full – not an ideal cushion.Fortunereports Tristan Bové.
The markets loved it. Oil returned to $91 per barrel, after peaking above $119.
The key to keeping oil prices low reopens the Strait of Hormuz to oil tankers. Unsurprisingly, Trump urged captains to move forward at full speed: “These ships should go through the Strait of Hormuz and be brave, there's nothing to fear…They don't have a navy, we've sunk all their ships,” Trump said. according to La Colline.
- He also threatened to bomb more if Iran doesn't let the oil flow. “They will be hit by the United States of America TWENTY TIMES HARDER than they have been hit so far,” he said on Truth Social.
How bad was it? “Catastrophic,” says Aramco CEO
To get an idea of the scale of the impending crisisread comments from Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser about his earnings call today: He said the war would have “catastrophic consequences” for global markets, causing “a serious chain reaction” and “a drastic domino effect…on aviation, agriculture, automobiles and other industries.” Nasser described the conflict as “by far the greatest crisis” the region's oil and gas industry had ever faced. When was the last time you heard a Big Oil CEO talk like that?
Are we 20 days away from the end of oil? If ships don't start crossing the strait, expect oil to hit $150, Vikas Dwivedi and the Macquarie team warned yesterday. “Without a deal and a rapid halt to all kinetic activity, the crude market will begin to collapse within days, not weeks or months,” they told clients. There have already been reports of oil and gas wells in Iraq, Kuwait and Qatar being shut-in. “In our opinion, the final reductions will take place in Saudi Arabia in approximately 20 days. »
What the strait looked like yesterday
Where does this leave us?
The Tehran regime East still in control of Iran. New Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei will retain his mandate huge mansion on The Bishops Avenue in London. China will be happy to have its main oil supplier back online. Poutine I have to whisper in Trump's ear, as tradition dictates.
ANTHROPIC
Pursue the hand that fed him
No surprises here: Anthropic's complaint against several US agencies, after it was designated a “supply chain risk” by the White House, contains some interesting nuggets in the accompanying amicus briefs, Fortune» said Alexei Oreskovic. The company has generated $5 billion in revenue since bringing its products to market in 2023, according to CFO Krishna Rao. Anthropic held hundreds of millions of dollars in Pentagon contracts, until Trump turned on the company. Read the complaint here. More details here.
TABLE OF THE DAY
Refund season is real
As of March 5, total federal tax refunds were $141 billion, up 9% from the previous year, according to Heather Berger and colleagues at Morgan Stanley. The average reimbursement is $3,742, up 11%. “This is below our expectations of a 15% to 25% year-over-year increase,” the analysts said.
ISSUE OF THE DAY
21.8%
Chinese exports increased 21.8% year-on-year, well above expectations. China's success came despite Trump's tariffs contributing to an 11% drop in exports to the United States.
QUICK SHOTS
TODAY’S NEWS
Yann LeCun's AI start-up raises more than $1 billion in Europe's largest funding round – Financial Times
Scoop: White House prepares executive order to eliminate Anthropic -Axios
Trump's war in Iran and rising gas prices collide with the mid-term agenda – New York Times
Conan O'Brien knew late night shows were in trouble after 'Hot Ones' went viral – New York Post
ONE MORE THING
Oracle Q3 Results Tonight: Cloud Computing, But Make It Drama
To set the scene, FortuneAmanda Gerut saysanalysts expect quarterly revenue to grow about 20% to around $17 billion, in line with Oracle's forecast of 19% to 21% year-over-year growth. But under the hood? There's a lot more going on — $108 billion in debt, negative cash flow and $1.6 billion in layoff costs — and those issues have sent its shares down about 20% so far in 2026.
